Cody Bellinger or Bust |
The Cubs began the off-season on a stunning and equally aggressive note with the signing of Craig Counsell to a stunning, record managerial contract.
All signs pointed to that shocking move, indicating that the Cubs would be big players during this offseason. While their names have been mentioned in connection to all the big names this off-season, the Cubs have been kept out of the headlines. It has been a relatively slow-moving market. Of the names reportedly available via trade or the top-line free agents, only Juan Soto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been involved in moves. While the Cubs were reported to be all-in on Ohtani and made him an aggressive offer of over half a billion dollars — Ohtani ultimately signed with his preferred destination, the Los Angeles Dodgers — who also acquired Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for some of LA’s highly touted young talent. Although they’ve missed out on two of the biggest names thus far, the Cubs still have a ton of financial flexibility and prospect capital to work with — so you can expect the quiet offseason won’t stay that way for long. Suppose the Cubs were willing to offer Ohtani 50 million dollars a year. In that case, that’s at least 50 million dollars that Tom Ricketts has given Jed Hoyer the “okay” to spend the offseason, so the Cubs should be able to add $50 million worth of impact talent. The top remaining name on the market was Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who had drawn heavy interest from big market teams. According to reports, A deal expected to settle nearly 200 million dollars looked to be closer to $300 million. The Cubs were interested, but the latest rumblings left the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers as the favorites, with the Red Sox and Phillies not far behind. Once again, like the Ohtani move, it left the Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs to pivot. Yamamoto chose to join Ohtani in LA, signing a 12-year $325 million contract that included a bonus worth $50 million and a $50 million postage fee. You can expect any team that misses out on Yamamoto to be active in the next wave of free agents, likely increasing the market interest in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery on the pitching side of things and players like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, JD Martinez and Jorge Soler. After Ohtani and Yamamoto, Bellinger is seen as the next big puzzle piece. According to early-in-the-offseason reports, the Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants were expected to put their hat in the ring for a player like Bellinger. The Yankees, of course, acquired Soto, and the Dodgers have acquired everybody else thus far. The Giants eventually made a splash — signing Japanese outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal worth $113 million. However, their interest in Cody Bellinger — the top remaining free agent, remains evident. Similarly, the BlueJays have resigned outfielder Kevin Kiermaier but are reportedly still very interested in Bellinger. The Phillies and the Mets were in the market for pitching and did not seem to be big players in any offensive players. The Red Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the Yankees, and the Mariners traded Jarred Kelenic to the Braves, potentially freeing up room in both of their outfields for a player like Bellinger. However, as conversations continue, their interest does not remain that extreme. So, once again, that leaves the Cubs with the Blue Jays and Giants as the main players for Bellinger’s services. But both teams have signed outfielders this offseason, and if the Cubs have a plan B, it has not yet been made evident. There SHOULD not be a plan B when it comes to Bellinger. The Cubs need him more and have a much more glaring hole for him to fill. As it stands right now, the Cubs 83-win team from a year ago has lost Marcus Stroman (opt-out, still a free agent), Jeimer Candelario (signed a contract with the Reds) and Cody Bellinger (free agent)— so on paper, it would be tough to believe the 2024 team could be better than the 2023 squad as it stands right now. The avenues to improve without Bellinger in 2024 are narrow and difficult for Jed Hoyer to pull off. Bellinger is coming off a resurgent campaign. After battling injuries and putting up historically bad numbers, Bellinger thrived in Chicago and put up numbers that rivaled his MVP season. The fit is not only apparent based on his success in 2023, but it is also an answer to a move-desperate team’s prayers. The Cubs need to sign Cody Bellinger. Sure, the Cubs could lose out on Bellinger — try to fill his production by addressing the corner infield, signing Rhys Hoskins and Matt Chapman, and relying heavily on a Pete Crow-Armstrong - Mike Tauchman platoon in centerfield. With trade rumors heating up, the Cubs could address the pitching needs via trade and maybe acquire a corner infielder through that route (i.e., Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler). But there are a lot of moving parts and a lot of dominos that need to fall to execute that approach — one that acquires parting with coveted prospects, making some tough decisions about Christoper Morel, and competing with a lot of other teams — and with how quiet this offseason has been thus far for Chicago, that doesn’t seem too likely. Acquiring Cody Bellinger does not solve all of the Cubs’ problems or guarantee them as division champions. Still, their ability to solve any issues and their odds of being division champions take a monstrous hit without Bellinger. An offseason that once appeared as exciting as any in recent memory now seems as bleak as anybody could have imagined as we approach the New Year. Without Bellinger, this highly anticipated winter might be a bust, and another year added to the treacherous rebuild.
