Cubs Free Agent Target: Walker Buehler |
With the Arizona Fall League finished, it's almost time for the middle of the offseason, when the rumor mill will start getting hot and heavy. As if it wasn't bad enough, the past three weeks that is just the beginning, as things will start to heat up rumor-wise heading into the Winter Meetings.
Once those meetings take place, the real action will start, as many feel this year's free agent period will be far more active than the past two years. The Cubs are expected to be one of those active teams, but it could be in a vastly different way. Their roster has some holes, but little to no openings to fill those holes. One of their holes is more starting pitching depth, but unlike the positional side of the team, where all the positions are filled, the Cubs do have space in their rotation to add one, if not two, more starters. One of those starters could be Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler, who could be a perfect fit for the Cubs this offseason. There was a time when Buehler was not only one of the best starters in the National League, but was one of the best young pitchers in the MLB. Armed with a 98 MPH heater paired with a lethal slider and change-up combination, Buehler had one of the brightest futures in the game to the point where a lot of executives felt he was going to be the face of the Dodgers franchise for years to come. Then came the dreaded injury bug, and Buehler suffered a series of arm injuries, drastically flipping what was a promising career on its head. 2024 was supposed to be a big year for Buehler as this was his contract year, but instead, he posted an ERA close to 6.00, which was the worst of his career. He did, however, bounce back in the postseason, getting back to his dominating self when the games were at their highest. There is no denying that Buehler has the talent and upside to get back to being one of the best in the game, but at age 30 and coming off a series of injuries there are some risks when it involves signing him. The past two seasons are proof of that as he started 16 games in 2024 with a 5.38 ERA and only 12 games this season with an ERA of just over 4.00 before getting back to his Cy Young caliber self during the postseason. With Jed Hoyer continuing to state that he wants to target some bigger fish in free agency surrounding the pitcher front, Buehler certainly fills that statement as he would instantly make the Cubs top three in the rotation one of the best in the National League. Ideally, you would love for the Cubs to add someone who has been dominating for a long stretch, but when it comes to Buehler, he got off to a great start, got hurt, and has continued to work his way back into form. He may never be the pitcher he once was, but if you can get the playoff version of Buehler from this season, any rotation would be lucky to have him. Anytime you're discussing free agents regarding the Cubs, you immediately have to look at the financial side of things to see if it falls in the team's budget. Regarding Buehler, there are different reports about what people think he will make on the open market. On the high end, people could see him getting a three-year deal close to 60 million with a low-end value of one year for around 18 million. You could also see him fall between both of those offers and sign for two years and 35 million. Regardless, all three of those projections play into the Cubs' financial plans as it's a shorter-term deal built around an affordable AAV. What makes the Cubs a significant player in the Buehler market is how they could structure a deal to get him. Use the Cody Bellinger deal of 2023 as an example: The Cubs signed him to a 17.5 million dollar prove-it deal before inking to a three-year deal the next offseason. The same strategic strategy could be put in place for Buehler: They could sign him to a one-year incentive-based deal that would act like a prove-it deal. If the deal doesn't work out, then the Cubs aren't tied to him long-term. Should he come in and look like the playoff version of himself, the Cubs would have the option to sign him to a multi-year deal, as he is still young enough to be a solid option in this rotation. This is one of the many pitchers the Cubs are going to take a look at, as they can get creative with any contracts they give out.
