Will Shota Imanaga Stay or Go? Cubs extend $22 million qualifying offer |
Anthony Pasquale
· · 3 hours ago
One of the biggest items to address following the conclusion of the World Series was the Cubs' plans for Shota Imanaga. When the Cubs inked the Japanese phenom to his contract, it had multiple options and escalators. After 2025, the Cubs had to decide whether they wanted to opt in to the final three years of the contract, which was worth $57 million over three years.
If the Cubs declined that option, Imanaga would be able to opt in for just 2026 for $15 million per year and would have the option to do that for 2027 as well. If both the Cubs and Imanaga decline their options, the Cubs could offer Imanaga a $22 million qualifying offer for 2026; if he accepts, he becomes a Cub in 2026. Declining would mean the Cubs receive draft pick compensation in next summer’s MLB draft when he signs elsewhere. Here’s why that matters. Imanaga had an excellent rookie season in 2024, earning an All-Star selection and finishing top-5 in both Rookie of the Year and Cy Young in the National League. The left-hander followed that up this year with a stellar 2.82 ERA in his first eight starts of the season. A left hamstring injury caused Imanaga to miss a month plus of the season, but upon his return, he delivered five innings of one-hit baseball, lowering his season ERA to 2.54. What happened toward the end of July and beyond became concerning. Imanaga gave up at least a run in his next 12 starts, including allowing three or more runs nine times. Perhaps even more concerning, a pitch-to-contact pitcher was struggling to keep the ball in the ballpark. Imanaga allowed 20 homers in his last 12 starts, including at least one homer in his last nine. Then came the postseason, where he gave up an additional three home runs in six and two-thirds innings. In fact, his struggles became so concerning for the Cubs that they decided not to start him on regular rest for their decisive Game 5 with the Brewers in the NLDS. What once seemed like an easy decision to keep Imanaga became more complicated. The Cubs’ concern for his late-season struggles proved to carry weight as they declined the option to convert his contract into a three-year, $57 million deal through 2028. It’s apparent that the Cubs were worried about Imanaga’s declining velocity as they entered his age-33 33-season. An investment of nearly $20 million per year seemed too steep for a pitcher they did not trust. Then it went to Imanaga’s plate. Did the lefty want to take a 15 million per year deal, with an option for 2027? If Imanaga was insulted by the Cubs declining his option, would he want to be back with the team anyway? Or does Imanaga think he can garner more on the open market than $30 million over two years? One of those answers proved to be yes, as Imanaga declined his option for 2026, making him a free agent. But before he hits the open market, the Cubs had another decision to make. Should the Cubs offer Imanaga a qualifying offer? This year, the MLB qualifying offer is for $22 million — pretty similar to a franchise tag in football. The Cubs offered it to Imanaga. If he accepts, he will be with the Cubs in 2026, making $22 million. If he declines, he will become a free agent, and the Cubs will receive draft-pick compensation when he inevitably signs elsewhere. During this window, the Cubs and Imanaga can negotiate a different contract if they choose to do so. It aligns with the NBA and NHL restricted and unrestricted free agency. The interesting question is, if the Cubs didn’t want to pay Imanaga $19 million next year as a part of a three-year deal, why are they offering him $22 million? Are they that concerned about years two and three of the deal? Are they that confident Imanaga won’t accept the offer? Does Imanaga believe he can haul in more than $22 per year on the open market after his rocky second half? The last week or so, since the Dodgers became the first team to win back-to-back World Series since the early 2000s, the Yankees have provided some insight on the future of Shota Imanaga and the Cubs — but clearly, some questions remain to be answered. Imanaga must make his decision on the qualifying offer by November 18th, then both sides will have some clarity as they move forward.
