Cubs Prospect Profile: Michael Arias |
It's time to dive back into the current Cubs Top-30 prospect list, which will continue to be an area of observation. This is the one area of the team that a lot of fans are going to be paying attention to, but not necessarily for the reasons you may think. One reason is the trade market, as the Cubs are expected to trade some of their pieces for MLB talent.
You already saw that with Alfonsin Rosario going to Cleveland for Eli Morgan, but that is the first of many moves on the way. You will also need to consider the Rule 5 draft, where the Cubs could lose some pieces but add some, as their top 30 list could look much different come the new year. Today, it's all about the No. 19 prospect, as RHP Michael Arias is our focus. When you look at the Cubs organization and dive into their pitching prospects, there aren't too many relief-only prospects you deem MLB-ready guys. Arias is one of those guys, and he started showing his potential last season as he preps for an important spring. Signed as an International Free Agent in 2018, Arias was initially an SS who signed for just 10,000. Two years later, the organization released Arias and then picked him up one year later. At that time, the Cubs were banking on the other part of his game as he went from SS to a pitcher, which is why the Cubs brought him back. As expected, converting from SS to pitcher comes with its challenges, as he struggled to throw strikes his first two seasons. You wouldn't have guessed that based on his first season in 2021 when Arias went 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA in Rookie ball while also locking down three saves. He walked 14 and struck out 22 across 23 innings while holding hitters to a .193 average. Small sample size or not, those were good numbers as Arias continued to get work as a starter in 2022, making ten starts, but only throwing 17 innings. Once again, a small sample size, Arias posted a 4.76 ERA in just 17 innings, as there were many more questions than answers following that season. Most of those questions were answered in 2023 when Arias finally started to show life as a starter. That season, Arias started a career-best 22 games while tossing a career-high 81 innings to post a 1-10 record. His 4.09 ERA isn't terrible when considering his record, but the 51 walks were an issue despite his 110 strikeouts. Hoping to fast-track Arias to the majors, the Cubs organization made a crucial decision regarding his future in 2024 and converted him from starter to full-time reliever. As difficult as it was to believe, it was a move that worked in everyone's favor as Arias appeared in 49 games between AA and AAA this season, going 6-2 with a 4.77 ERA. He walked 48, struck out 72, and converted five saves. As you can see, the walks are still an issue, but Arias has also shown the ability to overpower hitters at the highest Minor League levels. He does that with an unusual windup that creates a near-sidearm approach for hitters and rushes his heater up there at 97 MPH. Throw in the heavy sinking action on that pitch, and you can see why he is so hard to hit at times. As is the case with many starters (Former staters), Arias has three pitches that he can lean on, with his slider being the best of his offspeed offerings. Sitting at 87 MPH, the slider comes out of the hand from the same plane as the fastball, and the late break and life make it a tough pitch for righties to connect. Regarding lefties, Arias goes with his 88 MPH change as his go-to offering, with some fading action to go away from the hitter. Given his weird arm slot and electric life on his pitches, strikes will be hard to come by consistently, so Arias will no longer be a starter. However, given the overall stuff he possesses, if he can even throw strikes at a respectable rate, he has the chance to be a middle-late inning reliever, which the Cubs tried to use last season. Arias has improved greatly over the seasons, but he still needs to improve further to be considered a legitimate MLB contributor. The Cubs see a future with him, as he is currently on the 40-man roster and should remain there entering 2025.
