Cubs expected to push for Brandon Woodruff this offseason

Jeff Hanisch - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese · Senior Writer · 3 hours ago

Stop me if you have heard this before. A pitcher rounds into all-star form, only to get hurt. Rehab only to get back to form before getting hurt again. Typically, the next step in this process is never good, but for some reason, the Cubs have always gravitated toward those types of pitchers, seeing them as a buy-low, high-reward opportunity.

Brandon Woodruff could be the next in line for those types of deals, and according to reports, the Cubs are not only connected to him on the free agent market, but could be the favorite to land him once it's all said and done. On paper, this deal makes a ton of sense, as the Cubs need a frontline starter who is not only a high-velocity pitcher but also someone who can strike out batters, which Woodruff has consistently been able to do.

He also has familiarity with Craig Counsell, as he was the Brewers' long-time ace until injuries took that away from him. Now a free agent again, and coming off another injury, it will be interesting to see the type of market Woodruff has, but one thing is for sure: the Cubs are going to pursue him a lot more this season than they did two years ago when he was coming off his shoulder injury that ruled him out for the 2024 season.

There is no denying that when healthy, Woodruff is not only an Ace, but arguably one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Armed with a 97 MPH heater, Woodruff mixes in a lethal 90 MPH change-up and an 89 MPH breaking ball to keep hitters guessing and often makes them look silly. Going back to 2019, when Woodruff became a full-time starter for the first time, you can see how good he has been, posting a 53-28 record with an impressive 3.10 ERA.

That included an 11-3 showing in his first season as a starter with a 3.62 ERA while also putting up a dominant 2022 that saw him go 13-4 with an ERA just over 3.00. Take those two seasons away, and Woodruff has been nothing more than a .500 pitcher, going just 17-16 in his three other years as a starter. However, he posted a 2.83 ERA in those seasons, so he wasn't the primary reason for his struggles.

As good as he has been for most of his career, the past three years have been a struggle for him, and a lot of that has been due to injuries, which is now a concern for him going forward. After racing out to a Cy Young caliber start in 2023, going 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA across 11 starts, Woodruff was lost for the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury, which required offseason surgery.

That surgery forced him out of the 2024 season, and a setback in rehab delayed his 2025 debut. Once he was finally able to return to the mound last season, there was a lot of talk about whether or not Woodruff would be the same pitcher he was in the past, or if the injury to his shoulder would be the beginning of the end for him.

Not only did he answer those questions, but Woodruff didn't skip a beat, posting a 7-2 record across 12 starts to go with a 3.20 ERA. He did that while walking 14 and striking out 83 across 64 2/3 innings, which comes out to a 32.3K% and 5.4 BB%. Both would be considered elite numbers in this day and age, so even if Woodruff isn't the same Ace he was in the past, he has still shown the ability to be a frontline starter.

The biggest issue with him heading into the offseason was that this was the second time in three seasons that he had gotten off to a fast start only to be hampered by a shoulder injury. Since the 2023 season, Woodruff has made just 23 starts, but has still gone 12-3 with a 2.59 ERA in those starts.

Given his recent injury history and the fact that he is about to enter his age-33 season, signing him comes with plenty of risk, as his most recent injury could be the beginning of the end of his career. However, should he prove once again that he is healthy, Woodruff is someone you want on your team, and, from all accounts, his shoulder appears healthy, putting him on track to be ready by next season.

Risky or not, the Cubs have no issues signing a player like that, as they often view them as high-risk, high-reward players. Woodruff is the definition of a high-risk, but also a high-reward player that would instantly make this Cubs rotation better. Expected to command a 3-year deal in the 65 million range, that could be a little rich for the Cubs. However, if they can convince him to take a discount, or if the Cubs opt for a two-year deal at $ 45-50 million, Woodruff to Chicago may not be as crazy as some think.