Commentary: Should the Cubs really trade Cody Bellinger? |
One of the most reported things of the early offseason has been the fact that the Cubs are looking to trade Cody Bellinger. It appears clear that the Bellinger’s market is due to ramp up once the dust settles from a potential Juan Soto signing.
I know they want to, but should the Cubs be trying to trade Bellinger? On paper, it makes sense. The Cubs, an 83-win team in back-to-back seasons, must improve in 2025. They have eight top-100 prospects in their system, and a few of those players are ready to make their MLB debut. Bellinger is primarily a CF and a 1B — and the Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch with the assumed reigns to those positions. Bellinger could play RF while Sieya Suzuki is the DH, or they can try to improve by dealing Bellinger. Parting with Bellinger would open up a lane for Owen Caissie to play in 2025, it would free up some money for the Cubs to use elsewhere and, you would hope, warrant a large enough return to improve the 2025 ball club. Cody Bellinger will be entering his age 30 season and 9th overall. In 2017, Bellinger won Rookie of the Year, followed by a whopping 8.6 WAR MVP campaign in 2019. After the Dodgers won the World Series in 202, Bellinger spent the next two seasons battling slumps so severe that many thought his career was over. Instead, the Cubs took a chance on Bellinger. He offered up the second most productive season of his career with a 4.4 WAR, 26 homers, 97 RBI, and an average of .307—which gives you all of the information you need to understand why the Cubs gave him a three-year, 80 million dollar contract with multiple opt-out clauses. Many expected Bellinger to exercise his opt-out after 2024. Bellinger understands the crowded outfield picture and is coming off an injury-riddled 18 HR—78 RBI season. However, understanding that finding a contract as large as AAV (30 million per year) would be hard to come by, the 29-year-old decided to opt in and return to the Cubs. Immediately, that shifted the Cubs' gears into attempting to trade Bellinger. But why? Last offseason, we were clamoring about how we needed Cody Bellinger to compete. Many believed he was the missing piece to the puzzle. A year later, he is the subject of trade rumor after trade rumor. Here’s my point: If we were only able to win 83 with him, how many can we expect to win without him? A Bellinger trade would lead to immediate improvement in 2025 for me to sign off on it. How does trading away a left-handed power hitter with plus contact and speed, who plays elite defense at 1B and CF, make you better in the short or long term? It’s hard to see an avenue where the Cubs have a better offense without Bellinger in 2025. Not to mention, his opt-out clauses make a trade difficult. An opposing team doesn’t know if they’re trading for one year or two years of Bellinger — which makes piecing together a valid return for his services challenging. Don’t get me wrong, trading Bellinger *could* end up helping the Cubs; I don’t doubt that. But, I would remember the old adage ‘grass isn’t always greener’ before running one of your best players out of town.
