Corbin Burnes makes sense for Cubs |
Come on, Cubs. Would you do something already? That is the mindset that a lot of the Chicago Cubs fan base has gotten this season, as the early portion of free agency has been a dud, to say the least. Sure, the Cubs made the first big splash of the offseason by plucking Craig Counsell from the Brewers to manage the team, but since then, it has been nothing but crickets on the Northside, causing a lot of the fan base to become frustrated with Jed Hoyer.
In the Cubs defense, they are not the only ones who have been quiet as the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays have been some of the quieter teams this offseason. Oddly enough, those are the teams that have been linked to Shohei Otani this offseason as they continue to play the waiting game on his decision. While practicing patience can be a good thing when you want a player, there is also a fine line between having patience or, at the very least, too much patience, and that is the line the Cubs front office is toeing right now. It's no secret that they want Otani and have hindered their entire offseason around him. However, at some point, you need to realize that you have other holes to fill, and the longer you wait for an answer, the less likely you will fill those holes, as players will start signing sooner rather than later. One of the bigger holes to fill on this team is starting pitching, which has been an issue the past few years depth-wise. Expected to enter the 2024 season with four committed starters, Marcus Stroman opted out of his deal, thus leaving the Cubs with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon as the only guaranteed starters in the rotation. Drew Smyly is back and could be an option, as is Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks, and Javier Assad for that fifth spot. All had some success at times last season, but for the Cubs to get where they want to be, they need to add at least one front-line starter and or another starter to help the rotation. Otani would be a front-line guy in 2025, as he will not pitch in 2024, but Yoshinbu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Aaron Nola were all guys expected to be in play for the Cubs. With Nola returning to the Phillies and Yamamoto's price tag going up by the day, the Cubs may no longer be looking to add pitching on the free-agent market and could look toward trading for help. Tyler Glasnow continues to be the most common name, but given his injury history, there are a lot of concerns surrounding that potential deal. The Cubs need to consider that and have a backup plan should they not land Glasnow. Looking at the rest of the potential trade candidates, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber come to mind, but neither seem to get the needle moving too much. One name that hasn't been mentioned a ton, but should is Corbin Burnes and you have to wonder if Burnes would be an option for this team especially with Counsell being the manager in Chicago. Burnes has been the Ace of the Brewers staff for the past few years and has emerged as one of the best pitchers in the NL since 2021. Given his age of 27 going on 28 and his overall durability on the mound, he is the perfect trade target for the Cubs as he would not only be the Ace this season but would be someone that the Cubs would look to extend. The Brewers have made it clear that they want to extend Burnes and have no plans to trade him right now, but given how the contract situation played out last season and now having Counsell in Chicago, it makes you wonder where that relationship stands. Burnes is the definition of an Ace as he comes with a 97 MPH heater paired with a lethal slider and improving change-up. Not only does he have the velocity the Cubs rotation lacks, but he has the swing-and-miss stuff this team needs, and he could be a great building block. Despite coming off an NL Central championship last season, there have been hints that the Brewers may go into a mini rebuild or a retooling phase. Burnes may not want to be a part of that and realistically he is the Brewers best option to trade away if you want to keep a potential rebuild short. Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. Apart from the ERA, everything else would have led the Cubs staff, as he would make for a nice 1-2 punch with Steele atop that rotation. The thing that stands out about the 2023 season for Burnes was that he was off to one of the worst starts of his career before finishing with a 2.72 ERA from June 1 on. Whatever tweaks he made were working, as his walk rate remained steady while he also saw a slight uptick in strikeouts. Even at that, he still wasn't at the level he was when he won the Cy Young, and that alone has raised some red flags about a potential deal with anyone. His slight dip in strikeouts and increase in walks is a minor concern, but the more significant concern was his ERA, as fewer strikeouts and more walks lead to more damage. Much of that had to do with putting too much pressure on himself, as Brandon Woodruff missed half of the season with a shoulder injury and will be out all of 2024. Either way, the body of work Burnes has shown since 2020 isn't something you can take away from, and given the relationship Counsell has, it may be worth a shot to check in on the asking price and see what could be done to make something happen.
